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LSI (FRA:LOG) Predictability Rank


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What is LSI Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


LSI Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

LSI Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LSI's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


LSI (FRA:LOG) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
LSI Corporation was incorporated in California on November 6, 1980, and was reincorporated in Delaware on June 11, 1987. The Company designs, develops and markets networking semiconductors and storage systems. It provides silicon-to-system solutions that are used to create, store, consume and transport digital information. It offers integrated circuits used in hard disk drives, solid state drives, high-speed communications systems, computer servers, storage systems and personal computers. It also offers external storage systems, storage systems software, redundant array of independent disks, or RAID, adapters for computer servers, and RAID software applications. The Company has two segments — the Semiconductor segment and the Storage Systems segment. Its semiconductor segment designs, develops and markets complex integrated circuits for storage and networking applications. These solutions include both custom solutions and standard products. It designs custom solutions for a specific application defined by the customer. The Company develops products for market applications that it defines and sells them to multiple customers. It sells its integrated circuits for storage applications to makers of hard disk drives, solid state drives and computer servers. It sells its integrated circuits for networking applications principally to makers of devices used in computer and telecommunications networks and, to a lesser extent, to makers of personal computers. Its storage systems segment designs and sells enterprise storage systems and storage software applications that enable storage area networks. The Company also offers RAID adapters for computer servers and associated software for attaching storage devices to computer servers. It sells its storage systems and storage solutions mainly to OEMs who resell these products to end customers under their own brand name. The semiconductor industry is competitive and is characterized by rapidly changing technology, short product cycles and emerging standards. The semiconductor manufacturing process begins with wafer fabrication, where a design is transferred to silicon wafers through a series of processes, including photolithography, ion implantation, deposition of numerous films and the etching of these various films and layers. On January 3, 2012, the company acquired SandForce, Inc., a provider of flash storage processors, or FSPs, for enterprise and client flash solutions and solid state drives, or SSDs. Federal, state and local regulations, in addition to those of other nations, impose various environmental controls on certain chemicals and restricted substances used in the manufacture of semiconductor and storage products.

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