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Pacer International, (FRA:PA1) Predictability Rank


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What is Pacer International, Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pacer International, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Pacer International, Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pacer International, (FRA:PA1) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Pacer International, Inc. (FRA:PA1) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
WAR:PKP RLGT JSE:GND SHSE:600119 BKK:JWD TSE:9369 TSE:9308 BOM:540798 XKRX:004360 XKLS:4634 TSE:9083 TSE:9358 TSE:9381 OCSE:NTG NSE:TCI SZSE:002800 HKSE:03399 XKRX:002320 HKSE:00500 XSGO:AGUNSA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Website
http://www.pacer.com
Pacer International, Inc., is an asset-light transportation and global logistics services provider. The Company provide its services from two operating segments, an intermodal segment, which provides intermodal transportation services mainly to beneficial cargo owners, transportation intermediaries and steamship lines who use intermodal transportation, and the logistics segment, which provides highway brokerage, supply chain management services, international freight forwarding, ocean shipping, and warehousing and distribution services to a wide variety of end-user customers. Intermodal segment offers full service door-to-door intermodal services to its customers, which include end-user customers, transportation intermediaries, such as intermodal marketing companies, and steamship lines. The Company logistics segment consists of: Highway brokerage services; International freight forwarding and NVOCC services; Warehousing and Distribution services; and Supply Chain Management services. The Company provides transportation and logistics services to many Fortune 500 and multi-national companies as well as to numerous other shippers and transportation third parties. The Company has direct sales and customer service representatives in its intermodal and logistics segments that sell and support its portfolio of services to a diverse customer base which includes beneficial cargo owners, steamship lines, truckload carriers, truck brokers, freight forwarders and other third party transportation service providers such as intermodal marketing companies, third-party logistics companies, and shippers' agents. The Company's main competitors are J.B. Hunt Transport, Schneider National, the Hub Group, C.H. Robinson, the supply chain solutions divisions of Ryder and Menlo Worldwide, Expeditors International and UTi Worldwide, Inc. The Company's facilities and operations are subject to federal, state and local environmental, hazardous materials transportation and occupational health and safety requirements, including those relating to the handling, labeling, shipping and transportation of hazardous materials, discharges of substances into the air, water and land, the handling, storage and disposal of wastes and the cleanup of properties affected by pollutants.

Pacer International, (FRA:PA1) Headlines

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