FSCO (FS Credit Opp) Predictability Rank

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What is FS Credit Opp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FS Credit Opp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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FS Credit Opp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » FS Credit Opp Corp. (NYSE:FSCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 Rouse Boulevard, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19112

Website

https://www.fsinvestments.com

FS Credit Opp Corp. is a closed-end management investment company. The Fund's primary investment objective is to generate an attractive total return consisting of a high level of current income and capital appreciation, with a secondary objective of capital preservation. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by focusing on strategies such as Opportunistic Credit (including event-driven and market price inefficiencies), Special Situations, and Capital Structure Solutions.

Executives

Hughes Philip E Jr	director	3936 NETHERFIELD ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19129
Della Clark	director	201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Fsh Seed Capital Vehicle I Llc	other: Investment Adviser Affiliate	201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Franklin Square Holdings, L.p.	other: Investment Adviser Affiliate	201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
David J. Adelman	other: Investment Adviser Affiliate	CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2867
Michael C. Forman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2867
Nix Robert N.c. Iii	director	C/O FS INVESTMENT CORPORATION III, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Keith Bethel	director	C/O ARAMARK, 2400 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Guardian Life Insurance Co Of America	10 percent owner	10 HUDSON YARDS, NY NY 10001
Gallivan Edward T Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FS ENERGY AND POWER FUND, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Hans Nicholas Heilbut	other: Investment Committee Member	C/O FS INVESTMENTS, 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Michael John Kelly	other: Investment Committee Member	201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
David Weiser	other: Investment Committee Member	201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Andrew Beckman	other: Investment Committee Member	C/O FS INVESTMENTS, 201 ROUSE BOULEVARD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Sean K Coleman	other: Investment Committee Member	C/O FRANKLIN SQUARE CAPITAL PARTNERS, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104