GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » First Solar Inc (NAS:FSLR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

First Solar (First Solar) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2006. Start your Free Trial
1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


First Solar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

First Solar Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of First Solar's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


First Solar (First Solar) Business Description

Address
350 West Washington Street, Suite 600, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281
First Solar designs and manufactures solar photovoltaic panels, modules, and systems for use in utility-scale development projects. The company's solar modules use cadmium telluride to convert sunlight into electricity. This is commonly called thin-film technology. First Solar is the world's largest thin-film solar module manufacturer. It has production lines in Vietnam, Malaysia, the United States, and India.
Executives
Georges Antoun officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O FIRST SOLAR, INC., 350 WEST WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Kuntal Kumar Verma officer: Chief Mfg. Engineering Officer 28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Alexander R. Bradley officer: Chief Financial Officer 77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Markus Gloeckler officer: Co-Chief Technology Officer 28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
R Craig Kennedy director 1844 "R" STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20009
Mark R Widmar officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GRAFTECH INTERNATIONAL LTD, 12900 SNOW ROAD, PARMA OH 44130
Michael T Sweeney director GOLDNER HAWN, 3700 WELLS FARGO CENTER, 90 SOUTH 7TH ST, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
William J Post director 400 NORTH FIFTH STREET, ., PHOENIX AZ 85004
Paul H Stebbins director C/O WORLD FUEL SERVICES CORP, 9800 N.W. 41ST STREET, SUITE 400, MIAMI FL 33178
Byron Michael Jeffers officer: CAO, Interim 350 WEST WASHINGTON ST., TEMPE AZ 85281
Richard D Chapman director 350 WEST WASHINGTON STREET, SUITE 600, TEMPE AZ 85281
Jason E. Dymbort officer: General Counsel, Interim 77 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Norman L. Wright director 26335 N. 104TH WAY, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Patrick James Buehler officer: Chief Quality and Rel. Officer 28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551
Michael Koralewski officer: Chief Mfg. Operations Officer 28101 CEDAR PARK BLVD., PERRYSBURG OH 43551

First Solar (First Solar) Headlines