What is Forty Seven Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Forty Seven Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Forty Seven (Forty Seven) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1490 O’Brien Drive, Suite A, Menlo Park, CA, USA, 94025
Forty Seven Inc is a clinical-stage immuno-oncology company. It is engaged in developing novel checkpoint therapies to activate macrophages and help the patients in their fight against cancer. It founded that blocking CD47, a key signaling molecule that is overexpressed on cancer cells renders tumors susceptible to macrophages. It is also preparing investigational compounds into clinical testing. FSI-174, an anti-cKIT antibody, is being developed in combination with magrolimab as a novel, all-antibody conditioning regimen to address the limitations of current stem cell transplantation conditioning regimens. FSI-189, an anti-SIRP-alpha antibody, is being developed for the treatment of cancer, and certain non-oncology conditions, including transplantation conditioning.
Executives
| Dennis Henner |
director |
THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Kristine M Ball |
director |
C/O RELYPSA, INC., 700 SAGINAW DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063 |
| Ann D Rhoads |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4000 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95134 |
| Ian T Clark |
director |
SOLAZYME, INC., 225 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Jeffrey W Bird |
director |
755 PAGE MILL RD STE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005 |
| Lightspeed General Partner X, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Lightspeed Ultimate General Partner X, Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Jeremy Liew |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Lightspeed Venture Partners X, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Barry Eggers |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Peter Nieh |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Ravi Mhatre |
10 percent owner |
2200 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Stephen A Schwarzman |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Clarus Iii L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP L.P., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Inc. |
10 percent owner |
345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
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