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FUND (Sprott Focus Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is Sprott Focus Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Sprott Focus Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Sprott Focus Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sprott Focus Trust Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
320 Post Road, Suite 230, Darien, CT, USA, 06820
Sprott Focus Trust Inc is a diversified closed-end investment company. Its primary investment objective is long-term capital growth. To achieve its objective, The Fund may invest its assets in equity securities and in direct obligations of the U.S. Government or its agencies and in the non-convertible preferred stocks & debt securities of domestic and foreign companies. It invests in various sectors, of which Materials, Financials, Energy, Information technology sector account for the majority weightage.
Executives
W Whitney George director, 10 percent owner, other: Senior Portfolio Manager C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Patricia Walsh Chadwick director 7337 E DOUBLETREE RANCH ROAD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85258
Fockler Jack E. Jr. officer: Vice President, other: VP - Investment Advisor C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Arthur S Mehlman director C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Charles M Royce director, officer: President, other: CEO - Investment Adviser C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
G Peter Obrien director C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
John E Denneen officer: Secretary, other: Secretary - Investment Advisor C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Christopher D Clark officer: Vice President, other: President - Investment Advisor 745 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 2400, NEW YORK NY 10151
Francis Gannon officer: Vice President C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Richard M Galkin director C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
John D Diederich officer: Vice President & Treasurer, other: COO & CFO - Investment Adviser ROYCE & ASSOCIATES LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Stephen L Isaacs director C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
David L Meister director C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
O Byrne Daniel A officer: Vice President, other: VP - Investment Advisor ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
William L Koke director, other: Director through 12/31/2009 C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151