Golub Capital BDC (Golub Capital BDC) Predictability Rank

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What is Golub Capital BDC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Golub Capital BDC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Golub Capital BDC (Golub Capital BDC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Golub Capital BDC Inc (NAS:GBDC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

OGL:Germany

Address

200 Park Avenue, 25th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10166

Website

https://golubcapitalbdc.com

Golub Capital BDC Inc is an externally managed, closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. Its investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation by investing in senior secured and one-stop loans in United States middle-market companies. It also invests in the second lien and subordinated loans, warrants, and minority equity securities in United States middle-market companies. The company generally invests in securities that have been rated below investment grade by independent rating agencies or that would be rated below investment grade if they were rated.

Executives

Anita R Rosenberg	director	C/O GOLUB CAPITAL BDC, INC., 150 SOUTH WACKER STREET, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Lawrence E Golub	director, officer: Chairman	555 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Golub	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1125 PARK AVE. 7A, NEW YORK NY 10128
John Thomas Baily	director	919 THIRD AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ericson Christopher Compton	officer: Chief Fin. Officer & Treasurer	C/O GOLUB CAPITAL, 200 PARK AVENUE, 25TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10166
Holder Lofton Phillip Jr	director	48 WEST 89TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10024
Joshua M Levinson	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	150 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, 8TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Webster William M Iv	director	120 N LASALLE ST, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60602
Ross Teune	officer: Chief Financial Officer	150 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ohio Strs	10 percent owner	275 E BROAD ST, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Kenneth F Bernstein	director	C/O ACADIA REALTY TRUST, 411 THEODORE FREMD AVENUE, SUITE 300, RYE NY 10580
Thomas E Lynch	director	382 GREENWICH AVE, SUITE ONE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Sean K Coleman	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O FRANKLIN SQUARE CAPITAL PARTNERS, CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, SUITE 675, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Gems Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O GC ADVISORS LLC, 150 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Golub Capital Co Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	150 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 800, CHICAGO IL 60606