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Global Gold (Global Gold) Predictability Rank


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What is Global Gold Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Gold Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Global Gold Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Global Gold's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Global Gold (Global Gold) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Global Gold Corp (OTCPK:GBGD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:ALM TSXV:ALD XCNQ:EVG TSXV:KLM TSXV:RTM TSXV:CPA.H TSXV:MTC TSXV:TOM TSXV:OPW TSXV:MGI TSXV:AGL TSXV:SXL TSXV:TEG.H TSXV:CZ.H TSXV:PAL TSXV:QRO TSXV:FGC TSXV:CIO TSXV:RCT TSXV:DMR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
555 Theodore Fremd Avenue, Suite C208, Rye, NY, USA, 10580
Website
http://www.globalgoldcorp.com
Global Gold Corp is an exploration-stage company. It operates as an international gold mining, development, and exploration company with mining properties in Armenia, Canada, and Chile. Business activity of the firm is functioned through the production of gold, silver and other precious metals segment. The company holds interests in the Toukhmanuk property in the North Central Armenian Belt; and Hankavan and Marjan properties located in Armenia. It also holds a royalty interest in the Cochrane Pond property in Newfoundland, Canada.
Executives
Farallon Capital Institutional Partners, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON PARTNERS, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Richard H. Voon 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C. ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100 SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Daniel J. Hirsch 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% 748 DIAMOND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Ashish H Pant 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% 390 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Douglas M Macmahon 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., 390 PARK AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Spokes Andrew J M 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Jason E Moment 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Farallon Capital Offshore Investors Ii, L.p. 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Rajiv A Patel 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
William F Duhamel 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Richard B Fried 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Monica R Landry 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Mark C Wehrly 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Stephen L Millham 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Farallon Capital Institutional Partners Iii Lp 10 percent owner, other: Member of Group Owning 10% C/O FARALLON CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.L.C., ONE MARITIME PLAZA, SUITE 2100, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111

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