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GDRZF (Gold Reserve) Predictability Rank


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What is Gold Reserve Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gold Reserve Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Gold Reserve Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Gold Reserve's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Gold Reserve Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Gold Reserve Ltd (OTCPK:GDRZF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TSXV:OMG TSX:GOLD TSX:STGO TSXV:MAI TSX:ITH TSX:FF TSXV:MFG TSXV:GGA TSXV:MMY TSXV:AMX SHSE:601899 NEM TSX:AEM TSX:WPM TSX:ABX TSX:FNV AU MIC:PLZL JSE:GFI ASX:NST
Traded in Other Exchanges
97Z:Germany GRZ:Canada
Address
999 W. Riverside Avenue, Suite 401, Spokane, WA, USA, 99201
Website
https://www.goldreserve.bm
Gold Reserve Ltd is focused on managing and monetizing a collection of legal and arbitral claims related to mineral properties.. These claims include the CITGO Proceedings, Portugal Attachment Proceedings, and the Siembra Minera Arbitration Proceedings.
Executives
Steelhead Navigator Master, L.p. 10 percent owner C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, UGLAND HOUSE, PO BOX 309, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Rockne J Timm director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
A Douglas Belanger director, officer: President C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Robert A Mcguinness officer: Vice President Finance and CFO C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Patrick D Mcchesney director C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Jean Charles Potvin director C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
James P Geyer director, officer: Senior Vice President C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Mary E Smith officer: VP Administration & Secretary C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Chris D Mikkelsen director C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
James Hayward Coleman director C/O GOLD RESERVE CORP, 926 W. SPRAGUE AVENUE, SUITE 200, SPOKANE WA 99201
Steelhead Partners Llc other: See footnotes 800 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 3700, SEATTLE WA 98104
James Michael Johnston other: See footnotes 333 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 2010, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Brian Katz Klein other: See footnotes 333 108TH AVENUE NE, SUITE 2010, BELLEVUE WA 98004