Great Elm Group (Great Elm Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Great Elm Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Great Elm Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Great Elm Group (Great Elm Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Great Elm Group Inc (NAS:GEG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PNC:Germany

Address

800 South Street, Suite 230, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453

Website

https://www.greatelmcap.com

Great Elm Group Inc operates as a holding company. It focuses on growing a scalable and diversified portfolio of long-duration, permanent capital vehicles across corporate credit, specialty finance, real estate, and other asset classes. The company's only segment is investment management.

Executives

Jason W. Reese	director, 10 percent owner	C/O IMPERIAL CAPITAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, L, 10100 SANTA MONICA BLVD. SUITE 2400, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
James H Hugar	director	C/O VITESSE SEMICONDUCTOR CORPORATION, 4721 CALLE CARGA, CAMARILLO CA 93012
Matthew A Drapkin	director	10 CORBIN DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Northern Right Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner, other: Member of 13D 10% Group	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Keri Davis	officer: Chief Financial Officer	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Imperial Capital Group Holdings Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	3801 PGA BOULEVARD, SUITE 603, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Adam M Kleinman	officer: President	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Peter A Reed	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O UNWIRED PLANET, INC., 170 S. VIRGINIA STREET SUITE 201, RENO NV 89501
Nichole Milz	officer: Chief Operating Officer	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Nrc Partners I, Lp	10 percent owner	9 OLD KINGS HIGHWAY SOUTH, 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Northern Right Capital (qp), L.p.	10 percent owner	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Bc Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	500 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 230, DALLAS TX 75201
David Matter	director	800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 230, WALTHAM MA 02453
Thomas S Harbin	director	SOURCE CAPITAL, LLC, 75 FOURTEENTH STREET, SUITE 2700, ATLANTA GA 30309
James P Parmelee	director	100 UNION SQUARE DRIVE, NEW HOPE PA 18938