Geospace Technologies (Geospace Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Geospace Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Geospace Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Geospace Technologies (Geospace Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Geospace Technologies Corp (NAS:GEOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7007 Pinemont Drive, Houston, TX, USA, 77040-6601

Website

https://www.geospace.com

Geospace Technologies Corp is engaged in designing and manufacturing of seismic instruments and non-seismic equipment used in the oil and gas industry. The company has three different segments: oil and gas markets, adjacent markets, and emerging markets. The oil and gas markets segment, which accounts for the majority of the company's revenue, includes traditional exploration products, wireless exploration products, and reservoir characterization products and services. The adjacent markets business is closely tied to the oil and gas markets and includes imaging products and industrial products. The company operates globally across Asia, Canada, Europe, South America and others with more than half of revenue generated within the United States.

Executives

Gary D Owens	director, officer: President & CEO	7007 PINEMONT DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77040
Walter R. Wheeler	officer: Executive Vice President	7007 PINEMONT DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77040
Robbin B. Adams	officer: Executive Vice President	7007 PINEMONT DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77040
Margaret Ashworth	director	6212 PARKHILL DRIVE, ALEXANDRIA VA 22312
Kenneth Asbury	director	1100 N. GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22201
Tina M Langtry	director	3211 CANYON LINKS DRIVE, KATY TX 77450
Thomas L Davis	director	COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES-DEPT. OF GEOPHY, 1500 ILLINOISE STREET, GOLDEN CO 80401-1887
William H Moody	director	2309 BIRKDALE LANE, KERRVILLE TX 78028
Richard F Miles	director	7007 PINEMONT DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77040
Robert L. Curda	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7007 PINEMONT, HOUSTON TX 77040
Giesinger Edgar R. Jr.	director	1915 SANDGATE FALLS, HOUSTON TX 77062
Lacey Rice	officer: Vice President	2527 BUFFALO TRAIL, SUGAR LAND TX 77479
Thomas T Mcentire	officer: Chief Financial Officer	7334 N GESSNER ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77040
Michael J Sheen	director, officer: SVP & Chief Technical Officer	7007 PINEMONT DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77040
Takashi Kanemori	director, 10 percent owner	OYO CORPORATION, 2-6 KUDAN-KITA 4-CHOME, CHIYODA-KU, TOKYO M0 102-0073