What is Monte Rosa Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Monte Rosa Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Monte Rosa Therapeutics Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
321 Harrison Avenue, Suite 900, Boston, MA, USA, 02118
Monte Rosa Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company that specializes in developing molecular glue degraders (MGDs), a class of small molecule drugs that leverage the body's natural protein destruction mechanisms to selectively degrade therapeutically-relevant proteins. Utilizing the QuEEN platform, the company employ artificial intelligence and proprietary experimental tools to identify target proteins for degradation by MGDs. With a diverse library of over 50,000 MGD molecules, their product candidate, MRT-2359, targets the translation termination factor protein GSPT1 for potential use in MYC-driven tumors. The company's focus lies in advancing its pipeline of MGDs, aiming to provide novel therapeutic modalities for various diseases.
Executives
| Chandra P. Leo |
director |
MONTE ROSA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 40 GUEST STREET, BOSTON MA 02135 |
| Versant Venture Capital Vi, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| Edmund Dunn |
officer: Principal Accounting Officer |
MONTE ROSA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 321 HARRISON AVENUE, SUITE 900, BOSTON MA 02210 |
| Anthony M. Manning |
director |
C/O PALATIN TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 4B CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512 |
| Jan Skvarka |
director |
C/O TRILLIUM THERAPEUTICS INC., 2488 DUNWIN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5L 1J9 |
| Philip Nickson |
officer: General Counsel |
MONTE ROSA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 40 GUEST STREET, BOSTON MA 02135 |
| Julian G Jones |
officer: Chief Business Officer |
MONTE ROSA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 645 SUMMER STREET, SUITE 102, BOSTON MA 02210 |
| Cormorant Asset Management, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Joshua Makower |
10 percent owner |
1212 TERRA BELLA AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Paul Edward Walker |
10 percent owner |
1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093 |
| Peter W. Sonsini |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Edward T Mathers |
10 percent owner |
C/O MEDIMMUNE, INC., ONE MEDIMMUNE WAY, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878 |
| Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Iii Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Kimberly Blackwell |
director |
C/O ZENTALIS PHARMACEUTICALS, LLC, 530 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 2201, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Cormorant Private Healthcare Fund Ii, Lp |
10 percent owner |
200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
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