GNT (GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold &ome Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold &ome Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold &ome Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold &ome Trust Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold & Income Trust (NYSE:GNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GNTpA.PFD:USA

Address

One Corporate Center, Rye, NY, USA, 10580-1422

Website

https://www.gabelli.com

GAMCO Natural Resources, Gold & Income Trust is a non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The company's primary investment objective is to provide a high level of current income from interest, dividends, and options premiums with its secondary objective being capital appreciation. Under normal market conditions, the company invests majority of its assets in securities of companies principally engaged in the natural resources and gold industries, and also engages in writing covered call options on the underlying equity securities. Its portfolio consists of securities from different sectors such as metals and mining, energy and energy services, specialty chemicals, agriculture, healthcare, machinery, food and beverage, and others.

Executives

John Chester Ball	officer: Treasurer	800 CONNECTICUT AVENUE, NORWALK CT 06854
Agnes Mullady	officer: Treasurer & Secretary	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Peter D. Goldstein	officer: Secretary	249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480
James P Conn	director
Anthony S. Colavita	director	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Kuni Nakamura	director	1 MARTIN BUTLER COURT, RYE NY 10580
Bruce N Alpert	officer: President	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Mario J Gabelli	other: Control Person of Adviser	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
William F Heitmann	director	1095 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, ROOM 4140, NEW YORK NY 10036-6797
Michael J Melarkey	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Anthonie C Vanekris	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Fahrenkopf Frank J Jr	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Salvatore J Zizza	director	810 SEVENTH AVE, 27TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Urso Mario D	director	65 EATON SQUARE, LONDON SW UK X0 041101225
Anthony J Colavita	director	ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580