What is GT Biopharma Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
GT Biopharma Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
GT Biopharma (GT Biopharma) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
8000 Marina Boulevard, Suite 100, Brisbane, CA, USA, 94005
GT Biopharma Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel immuno-oncology products in the United States. It is engaged in discovering, developing, and commercializing novel therapeutics from its proprietary product platform in a varied range of disease areas. The company mainly develops drugs focused on the treatment of cancer. Its TriKE (Tri-specific Killer Engager) platforms offer immuno-oncology products that can treat a range of hematologic malignancies, sarcoma, and solid tumors.
Executives
| Charles J Casamento |
director |
99 BELBROOK WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| Michael Martin Breen |
director, officer: Exec. Chair. and Interim CEO |
LOWSLEY HOUSE 133 HEADLEY ROAD, LIPHOOK X0 GU30 7PU |
| Manu Ohri |
officer: CFO & Secretary |
2355 MAIN STREET, SUITE 120, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Bruce Wendel |
director |
70 ELEVEN O'CLOCK ROAD, WESTON CT 06883 |
| Gregory Berk |
officer: Pres. of R&D, CMO |
HANA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 400 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Shrotriya Rajesh C Md |
director |
157 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Alan Louis Urban |
director |
1524 CLOVERFIELD BOULEVARD, SUITE E, SANTA MONICA CA 90404 |
| Gavin Choy |
officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer |
8000 MARINA BLVD, STE. 100, C/O GT BIOPHARMA, INC., BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Steven W Weldon |
director, officer: CFO |
7280 WESTPOINTE BLVD, APT 831, ORLANDO FL 32835 |
| Shawn Cross |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1825 K STREET SUITE 510, WASHINGTON DC 20006 |
| Raymond W. Urbanski |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
28903 NORTH AVENUE PAINE, VALENCIA CA 91355 |
| Kathleen Clarence-smith |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO |
1623 31ST STREET NW, WASHINGTON DC 20007 |
| Mark J Silverman |
10 percent owner |
224 22ND ST., SANTA MONICA CA 90402 |
| Bristol Capital Llc |
10 percent owner |
|
| Bristol Investment Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
89 NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 311063, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205 |
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