GTE (Gran Tierra Energy) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is Gran Tierra Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gran Tierra Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Gran Tierra Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Gran Tierra Energy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Gran Tierra Energy Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Gran Tierra Energy Inc (AMEX:GTE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GTE:UK G1P0:Germany GTE:Canada

Address

500 Centre Street S.E, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2G 1A6

Website

https://www.grantierra.com

Gran Tierra Energy Inc is an independent energy company. The company, along with its subsidiaries, is focused on oil and gas exploration and production, with assets in Colombia, Canada, and Ecuador. It produces oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. Gran Tierra has assembled a diversified, high-quality asset base that is fully operated in Colombia and Ecuador and partly in Canada. The company operates various blocks in Colombia and Ecuador, spanning three basins. It also has contiguous areas in Alberta, Canada, spanning various gross acres across the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company's reportable segments are Colombia, Ecuador, Canada, and Other. A majority of its revenue is derived from its operations in Colombia.

Executives

David P Smith	director	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Gary Guidry	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Ronald Royal	director	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Ryan Ellson	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Phillip D Abraham	officer: VP, Legal and Business Dev.	GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 500 CENTRE STREET SE, CALGARY Z4 A0 T2G 1A6
Robert G Will	officer: Vice President, Asset Manager	GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 500 CENTRE STREET SE, CALGARY Z4 A0 T2G 1A6
Alison Redford	director	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 900, 520 - 3 AVENUE SW, CALGARY Z4 T2P 0R3
Gmt Capital Corp	10 percent owner	GMT CAPITAL CORP, 2300 WINDY RIDGE PARKWAY SUITE 550 SOUTH, ATLANTA GA 30339
Brooke N. Wade	director	500-1195 WEST BROADWAY, VANCOUVER A1 V6H 3X5
Lawrence West	officer: VP, Exploration	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Sondra Scott	director	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 900, 520-3 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 0R3
Jim Evans	officer: VP, Corporate Services	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Remi Anthony Berthelet	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 900, 520 - 3 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2P 0R3
Rodger Derrick Trimble	officer: VP, Investor Relations	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150-13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2
Robert B. Hodgins	director	C/O GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC., 200, 150 13 AVENUE SW, CALGARY A0 T2R 0V2