GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Guided Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:GTHP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

GTHP (Guided Therapeutics) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is Guided Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guided Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Guided Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Guided Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Guided Therapeutics Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Guided Therapeutics Inc (OTCPK:GTHP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
DHAI PAVM SSKN RMSL WOK AIMD IINN INBS BTCY TRIB ABT BSX SYK MDT XTER:SHL EW SZSE:300760 DXCM STE PODD
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5835 Peachtree Corners East, Suite B, Norcross, GA, USA, 30092
Website
https://www.guidedinc.com
Guided Therapeutics Inc is a medical technology company. It is engaged in developing medical devices that have the potential to improve healthcare. Its primary focus is the sales and marketing of its LuViva Advanced Cervical Scan non-invasive cervical cancer detection device and the extension of its cancer detection technology into other cancers, including esophageal. The company generates revenue from the sale of medical devices.
Executives
Michael C James director 2040 MAIN STREET, SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
John E Imhoff director, 10 percent owner P.O. BOX 31083, SEA ISLAND GA 31561
Alan Grujic director 349 FORBES AVE, SAN RAFAEL CA 94901
Richard P. Blumberg director 2357 HOBART AVENUE S.W., SEATTLE WA 98116
Lynne H Imhoff 10 percent owner 2716 SOUTH ROCKFORD ROAD, TULSA OK 74114
Gene S Cartwright officer: Chief Executive Officer 4088 COMMERCIAL AVE, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Parsons & Whittemore Enterprises Corp. 10 percent owner 4 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
George F. Landegger 2010 10-year Grat 10 percent owner 4 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
George F Landegger 10 percent owner 4 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK, NEW YORK NY 10573
Whittemore Collection Ltd 10 percent owner 4 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
George F. Landegger 2010 5-year Grat 10 percent owner 4 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Linda Rosenstock director 5995 PLAZA DRIVE, MAIL STOP CY20-103, CYPRESS CA 90630
Jonathan M Niloff director C/O MATRITECH, INC., 330 NEVADA STREET, NEWTON MA 02460
Ronald W Allen director P O BOX 1734, ATLANTA GA 30301
Shabbir Bakir Bambot officer: VP of R & D 4955 AVALON RIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, NORCROSS GA 30071