Gulf Resources (Gulf Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Gulf Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gulf Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gulf Resources (Gulf Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Gulf Resources Inc (NAS:GURE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

R29B:Germany

Address

Level 11, Vegetable Building, Industrial Park of the East Shouguang City, Shandong, Shouguang, CHN, 262700

Website

http://www.gulfresourcesinc.com

Gulf Resources Inc is a holding company engaged in the manufacture and trade of bromine and crude salt, and natural gas; manufactures and sells chemical products used in oil and gas field exploration, oil and gas distribution, oil field drilling, wastewater processing, papermaking chemical agents and inorganic chemicals, and manufactures and sells materials for human and animal antibiotics. It operates in four segments: Bromine, Crude Salt, Chemical Products, and Natural Gas. It derives maximum revenue from the Bromine segment which is commonly used in brominated flame retardants, fumigants, water purification compounds, dyes, medicines, and disinfectants.

Executives

Xiaobin Liu	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	GULF RESOURCES, INC. NO.99 WENCHANG ROAD, CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY F4 262714
Naihui Miao	officer: COO and Secretary	GULF RESOURCES INC. NO.99, WENCHANG ROAD, CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY F4 262714
Min Li	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	CHEMING INDUSTRIAL PARK UNIT, HAOYUAN CHEMICAL COMPANY LIMITED, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHAN F4 F4 262714
Tengfei Zhang	director	C/O GULF RESOURCES, INC. 99 WENCHANG RD., CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHANDONG F4 262714
Shengwei Ma	director	LEVEL 11, VEGETABLE BUILDING, INDUSTRIAL PARK OF THE EAST CITY, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHANGDON PROVI F4 262700
Shitong Jiang	director	GULF RESOURCES, INC. NO.99 WENCHANG ROAD, CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY F4 262714
Yang Zou	director	C/O GULF RESOURCES, INC., 99 WENCHANG RD, CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHANDONG F4 262714
Nan Li	director	C/O GULF RESOURCES, INC., 99 WENCHANG RD, CHENMING INDUSTRIAL PARK, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHANDONG F4 262714
Ming Yang	10 percent owner	NO. 501 BO HAI ROAD, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHANDONG F4 262700
Weijie Chen	10 percent owner	NORTH WEIGAO ROAD, LUOCHENG SUB-DISTRICT OFFICE, SHOUGUANG F4 262700
Hap Trading, Llc	10 percent owner	395 HUDSON STREET, SUITE 701, NEW YORK NY 10014
Vignolo Biagio M Jr	director	1 WHITEHALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Richard Khaleel	director	110 RIVERSIDE DRIVE, APT 3E, NEW YORK NY 10024
Shandong Haoyuan Industry Group Ltd	10 percent owner	WO PU TOWN, QING HE OIL EXTRACTION PLANT, 2ND LIVING DISTRICT, SHOUGUANG CITY F4 51800
Wenxiang Yu	10 percent owner	NO. 108 SHENG CHENG ROAD, BUILDING NO. 1, UNIT 3, ROOM 402, SHOUGUANG CITY, SHAN F4 262700