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Dot Hill Systems (Dot Hill Systems) Predictability Rank


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What is Dot Hill Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Dot Hill Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Dot Hill Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Dot Hill Systems (Dot Hill Systems) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Dot Hill Systems Corp was formed in 1999 by the combination of Box Hill Systems Corp., or Box Hill, and Artecon, Inc., or Artecon. It reincorporated in Delaware in 2001. It designs, manufactures and markets a range of software and hardware storage systems for the entry and mid-range storage markets. The Company sells its products through server-based original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), such as Hewlett-Packard, or HP, Dell Inc. or Dell, Lenovo Group Limited or Lenovo, Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. or AMD, and Stratus Technologies or Stratus; as well as into vertical markets through embedded solutions OEM's, such as Teradata Corporation or Teradata, CGG Veritas or CGG, Motorola, Inc. or Motorola, Tektronix Inc. or Tektronix, Samsung Electronics or Samsung, Concurrent Computer Corporation or Concurrent, Autodesk Inc. or Autodesk, Harris Broadcast Communications and Nokia Siemens Network or Nokia Siemens, which primarily include media and entertainment, telecommunications, high performance computing, digital image archive, big data and oil and gas. The Company's products, from small capacity direct attached to complete multi-hundred terabyte, or TB, storage area networks, or SANs, provide end-users with a cost-effective means of addressing increasing storage demands at compelling price-performance points. The Company's current product family based on its AssuredSAN architecture provides high performance and large disk array capacities for a broad variety of environments, employing Fibre Channel, Internet Small Computer Systems Interface, or iSCSI and Serial Attached SCSI, or SAS, interconnects to switches and/or hosts. In addition, its Assured family of data protection software products provides additional layers of data protection options to complement its line of storage disk arrays. The Company's current mainstream 2000 and 3000 series of entry-level storage products and Just a Bunch of Disks, or JBOD, arrays are targeted primarily at mainstream enterprise and small-to-medium business, or SMB, applications. The Company's AssuredSAN products have been distinguished by certification as Network Equipment Building System, or NEBS, Level 3 (a telecommunications standard for equipment used in central offices) and are MIL-STD-810F (a military standard created by the U.S.government) compliant based on their ruggedness and reliability. In February 2010, it launched the latest AssuredSAN 3000 series of storage arrays that provide high speed interface options including 8 gigabyte, or GB, Fibre Channel, 1GB and 10GB iSCSI over Ethernet and 6GB SAS connectivity. The Company's AssuredUVS product line, formerly known as the intelligent storage networking system, or iSN TM, is based on the technology it acquired in January 2010 from Cloverleaf Communications, Inc., or Cloverleaf, a privately held software company focused on heterogeneous storage virtualization and unified storage technologies. AssuredSnap is its DMS software that introduces p
Executives
Charles F Christ director
Barry Rudolph director 1351 S SUNSET STREET, LONGMONT CO 80501
Ernest J Sampias director 1600 BROADWAY, SUITE 2200, DENVER CO 80202
Dana Kammersgard director, officer: President & CEO 6305 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Richard Jr Mejia director 2200 FARADAY AVENUE, SUITE 100, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Kimberly Alexy director 500 MCCARTHY BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Philip Davis officer: Ex. VP WW Field Operations 6305 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92009
Chong Sup Park director 22071 DORSEY WAY, SARATOGA CA 95070

Dot Hill Systems (Dot Hill Systems) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Dot Hill Systems Looks Promising

By Mrinalini Chaudhuri TaniaC 05-31-2015