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Wuling Motors Holdings (HKSE:00305) Predictability Rank


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What is Wuling Motors Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wuling Motors Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Wuling Motors Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Wuling Motors Holdings (HKSE:00305) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Wuling Motors Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00305) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02025 HKSE:02488 HKSE:00951 HKSE:01760 HKSE:08418 HKSE:01188 HKSE:00096 HKSE:01148 HKSE:02457 HKSE:00360 TSE:6902 TSE:5108 XPAR:ML APTV MBLY GPC SHSE:600660 XKRX:012330 XTER:CON TSX:MG
Traded in Other Exchanges
WLMTF:USA 6LY:Germany
Address
168–200 Connaught Road, Shun Tak Centre, Unit 3406, 34th Floor, West Tower, Central, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.wuling.com.hk
Wuling Motors Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. Its principal activities are the manufacturing and sale of engines, engine-related parts, other power supply products, automotive components and accessories, steel and specialized vehicles (including new energy vehicles), as well as the provision of water and power supply to customers. The segments of the group are Vehicles' power supply systems; Automotive components and other industrial services, which is the key revenue-generating segment; Commercial vehicle assembly; and Others. The group derives a majority of its revenue from Mainland China.
Executives
Dragon Hill Development Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Kwan To Yin 2101 Beneficial owner
Lee Shing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Ling Xiang Gang Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Wu Ling Qi Che Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Xi Qi Che Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Wuling Motors Holdings (HKSE:00305) Headlines

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