Television Broadcasts (HKSE:00511) Predictability Rank

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What is Television Broadcasts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Television Broadcasts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Television Broadcasts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Television Broadcasts Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Television Broadcasts Ltd (HKSE:00511) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TVBCY:USA TBCN:Germany

Address

TVB City, 77 Chun Choi Street, Tseung Kwan O Industrial Estate, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.tvb.com

Television Broadcasts Ltd is a Hong Kong-based company whose activities involve terrestrial television broadcasting, together with programme production and other television-related activities. Its operating segments include Hong Kong TV broadcasting; OTT Streaming; e-Commerce business; Mainland China operations and International operations. The company derives a majority of revenue from the Hong Kong TV broadcasting segment involving the broadcasting of television programmes, commercials on terrestrial TV platforms, production of programmes, online social media platform, music entertainment, event and digital marketing. The group derives revenue from Hong Kong and other countries, of which prime revenue is derived from Hong Kong.

Executives

Brilliant Spark Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ever Port Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Young Lion Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hsu Kenneth Kin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Ruigang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua Ren Wen Hua Chuan Mei Yu Le Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cardy Oval Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Gaw Goodwin	2101 Beneficial owner
Silchester International Investors International Value Equity Trust	2101 Beneficial owner
Silchester International Investors Llp	2102 Investment manager
Dodge & Cox	2102 Investment manager
Cmc Inc. (formerly Known As Cmc Holdings Limited)	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua Ren Wen Hua Chuan Mei You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Television Broadcasts Headlines

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