Qianhai Health Holdings (HKSE:00911) Predictability Rank

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What is Qianhai Health Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Qianhai Health Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Qianhai Health Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Qianhai Health Holdings Ltd (HKSE:00911) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

177-183 Wing Lok Street, Room 301-3, 3rd Floor, Wing Tuck Commercial Centre, Sheung Wan, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.qianhaihealth.com.hk

Qianhai Health Holdings Ltd principally engaged in the sale of health products and electronic component products. It includes Chinese herbal medicines, skin-care and other healthcare products and the sale of information technology components products. The operating segments of the group are Healthcare products and Electronic component products. Healthcare products includes sale of healthcare products including Chinese herbal medicines, skincare and other healthcare products. Electronic component products includes sale of information technology components products including central processing unit and semiconductors. The group's revenue is all derived from Hong Kong.

Executives

Huang Jinglin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chong Siew Hoong	2202 Interest of your spouse
Explorer Rosy Limited
Huang Zhiqun
Hou Chung Man	2501 Other
Huang Guanchao	2101 Beneficial owner
Shinewing Sas (nominee Services) No. 3 Limited	2501 Other
Tang Chung Wah	2501 Other
Sparkling Rock Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lim Tzea	2101 Beneficial owner
Thousands Beauties Limited
Yunnan Energy Investment (h K) Co. Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Yunnan International Holding Group Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Yunnan International Supply Chain Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Yunnan Provincial Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd	2106 Person having a security interest in shares

Qianhai Health Holdings Headlines

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