TCL Electronics Holdings (HKSE:01070) Predictability Rank

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What is TCL Electronics Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TCL Electronics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TCL Electronics Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TCL Electronics Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01070) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

TCLHF:USA TC2A:Germany TC2A:Germany

Address

22 Science Park East Avenue, 5th Floor, Building 22E, Hong Kong Science Park, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://electronics.tcl.com

TCL Electronics Holdings Ltd designs, manufactures, and sells televisions globally. By brand, it is the third-largest supplier of televisions globally, but is second-largest in total television volume including televisions produced under original design and manufacture contracts for other brands. The five reportable operating segments are the Smart screen segment, Internet business segment, Smart mobile, All-category marketing segment and Smart commercial display, smart home, photovoltaic and other businesses segment.

Executives

Shang Hai Nuo Ya Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ge Fei Chuang Shi Xin Gen Bing Gou Yi Hao Tou Zi Ji Jin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Noah Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zeng Edward Qiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Jingbo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Xin Gen Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ge Fei Chuang Shi Xin Gen Bing Gou Ji Jin Tou Zi Ji Jin	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Shi Le Shi Xin Gen Bing Gou Ji Jin Tou Zi Guan Li Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bai Nian Ren Shou Bao Xian Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Wu Hu Ge Fei Zi Chan Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nuo Ya Zheng Xing Ji Jin Xiao Shou You Xian Gong Si	2305 Beneficiary of a trust
Shen Zhen Shi Le Shi Xin Gen Bing Gou Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Le Shi Wang Xin Xi Ji Shu Bei Jing Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tcl Industries Holdings Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Shi Le Shi Xin Gen Bing Gou Ji Jin Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

TCL Electronics Holdings Headlines

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