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Magnus Concordia Group (HKSE:01172) Predictability Rank


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What is Magnus Concordia Group Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Magnus Concordia Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Magnus Concordia Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Magnus Concordia Group Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Magnus Concordia Group Ltd (HKSE:01172) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00983 HKSE:00910 HKSE:01396 HKSE:00075 HKSE:00755 HKSE:01218 HKSE:06968 HKSE:03366 HKSE:01996 HKSE:09968 HKSE:00016 BOM:532868 DFM:EMAAR TSE:1925 HKSE:01109 PHS:HVN HKSE:00688 ADX:ALDAR HKSE:01113 BOM:543287
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
139 Hennessy Road, Units D & E, 20 Floor, China Overseas Building, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.mcgrouphk.com
Magnus Concordia Group Ltd is an investment holding company. The company's business divisions are Printing business, Property investment, Property Development, and Treasury where the printing business division includes the manufacture and sale of printed products including art books, packaging boxes, and children's books. property investment segment covers the investment and leasing of real estate properties, the Property development segment covers the development, sale, and trading of real estate properties, and the Treasury business involves the investment and trading of debts, equity, and other treasury instruments. The company earns its maximum revenue from property development and has a presence in Hong Kong, the United States, the UK, France, Mainland China, and other countries.
Executives
Sfund International Investment Fund Management Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Ke Ji Jin Rong Chuang Xin Tou Zi Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Hui Yin Tian Yue Gu Quan Tou Zi Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guang Zhou Shi Cheng Shi Jian She Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Jing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zeng Dazhang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xinsheng International Holding Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Xiqiang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shining Orient Investment Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ally Cosmo Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qingda Developments Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Pioneer Fund Limited Partnership 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Element Investments Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Li 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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