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Royale Home Holdings (HKSE:01198) Predictability Rank


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What is Royale Home Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Royale Home Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Royale Home Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Royale Home Holdings (HKSE:01198) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Royale Home Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01198) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00776 HKSE:00837 HKSE:02127 HKSE:00229 HKSE:00531 HKSE:01575 HKSE:02222 HKSE:06822 HKSE:00684 HKSE:01418 SZSE:000333 SHSE:600690 SZSE:000651 TSE:9843 SN TPX SZSE:000921 MHK XPAR:SK LSE:HWDN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
66 Mody Road, Room 607, 6th Floor, Tsim Sha Tsui Centre, Tsim Sha Tsui East, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://royale.todayir.com
Royale Home Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, the firm is engaged in the manufacture and sale of home furniture in China. The segments of the company are, 1) The furniture products segment, engaging in the manufacture and sale of home furniture. 2) The development properties for sale and property investments segment, engaging in the property investments and development. 3) The hotel operations segment, engaging in hotel operations. 4) The trading segment, engaging in the trading of aluminium ingots and bars. Geographically, it derives revenue from Mainland China.
Executives
Tse Kam Pang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ke Xue Cheng Guang Zhou Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ke Xue Cheng Xiang Gang Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Great Diamond Developments Ltd 2101 Beneficial owner

Royale Home Holdings (HKSE:01198) Headlines

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