China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co (HKSE:01253) Predictability Rank

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What is China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co (HKSE:01253) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co Ltd (HKSE:01253) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1588 Lane, Zhuguang Road, Floor 8, Block D3, 5th Building, Hongqiao World Center, Shanghai, CHN, 200333

Website

https://www.greenland-broadgreenstate.com.cn

China Greenland Broad Greenstate Group Co Ltd is an investment holding company that provides landscape architecture design services. The company is headquartered in the People's Republic of China and generates all revenue domestically. It designs, plans, constructs and maintains landscapes, and cultivates plant seedlings. Its clients are mainly local governments and state-owned enterprises in China, and the company is contracted to work in several municipal and city landscaping projects.

Executives

Lv Di Shu Zi Ke Ji You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lv Di Jin Rong Tou Zi Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lv Di Jin Chuang Ke Ji Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lv Di Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lv Di Kong Gu Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lv Di Jin Rong Hai Wai Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Broad Landscape International Company Limited
Inscription Capital Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Wu Zhengping	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Xiao Li	2202 Interest of your spouse
Hsbc International Trustee Limited	2301 Trustee
Hope Empire Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wholeking Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cai Kui	2501 Other
Cithara Global Multi-strategy Spc-series 6 Sp	2101 Beneficial owner

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