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Best Food Holding Co (HKSE:01488) Predictability Rank


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What is Best Food Holding Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Best Food Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Best Food Holding Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Best Food Holding Co (HKSE:01488) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » Best Food Holding Co Ltd (HKSE:01488) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02217 HKSE:00052 HKSE:00538 HKSE:06811 HKSE:01978 HKSE:00156 HKSE:00573 HKSE:00226 HKSE:00520 HKSE:01181 MCD SBUX CMG LSE:CPG YUM TSX:QSP.UN YUMC TSX:QSR DRI HKSE:06862
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 8 Finance Street, Suite 11, 70th Floor, Two International Finance Centre, Central, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.bestfoodholding.com
Best Food Holding Co Ltd is principally engaged in the operation of chain restaurants. It is involved in the Chinese fast-food restaurant chain and actively seeks relevant investment opportunities along the value chain of the catering industry. Its revenue is generated from the Food and beverage business. Geographically, it derives maximum revenue from PRC. It also has operations in the USA, Canada, Italy, Germany, Hong Kong, South American countries, UK, the Netherlands, the Middle East and Africa, Other European countries, and Other Asian countries.
Executives
Easyknit International Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Exponential Fortune Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fortune Eight Alps Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hony Capital Fund Viii (cayman), L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hony Capital Fund Viii Gp (cayman) Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hony Capital Fund Viii Gp (cayman), L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hony Group Management Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hony Managing Partners Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sonic Tycoon Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Zhao John Huan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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