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Colour Life Services Group Co (HKSE:01778) Predictability Rank


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What is Colour Life Services Group Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Colour Life Services Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Colour Life Services Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Colour Life Services Group Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Colour Life Services Group Co Ltd (HKSE:01778) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02271 HKSE:02048 HKSE:09608 HKSE:00733 HKSE:01895 HKSE:01538 HKSE:00063 HKSE:00037 HKSE:02168 HKSE:02165 CBRE CSGP XMAD:CLNX XTER:VNA BEKE TSE:8830 ADX:MODON HKSE:01972 HKSE:01209 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 1 Tairan 7th Road, 10th Floor, Tower B, The Platinum Tower, Futian District, Shenzhen, CHN, 518000
Website
http://www.colourlife.hk
Colour Life Services Group Co Ltd is a China-based company that provides property management and community services provider in China. The company operates in single segments namely the provision of property management services and related services in the PRC. The property management services segment provides community services including security, cleaning, gardening, repair and maintenance, and others to residential communities; presale services to property developers; and consultancy services to regional property companies. The company primarily operates in the PRC.
Executives
Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Fantasy Pearl International Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ice Apex Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Splendid Fortune Enterprise Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Zeng Jie Baby 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Delight Vision Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jovial New Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tfi Securities And Futures Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Colour Success Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tang Xuebin 2101 Beneficial owner

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