51 Credit Card (HKSE:02051) Predictability Rank

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What is 51 Credit Card Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

51 Credit Card Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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51 Credit Card (HKSE:02051) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » 51 Credit Card Inc (HKSE:02051) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2JY:Germany

Address

No. 588 Wenyi West Road, Building B3, CECEP Xixi Center, Xihu District, Zhejiang, Hangzhou, CHN

Website

https://www.u51.com

51 Credit Card Inc is an investment holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, it is engaged in providing one-stop personal financial technology services and SaaS services, covering personal credit management, credit card technology services and online credit facilitation and investment services in China. The firm derives revenue from Credit facilitation and service fee, Payment service fee, Credit card technology service fee, SaaS service fee and Other revenue. A majority of its revenue gets derived through Credit facilitation and service fee. The majority of the group's activities are carried out in Mainland China.

Executives

Shen Guojun	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Cantrust (far East) Limited	2301 Trustee
East Jump Management Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Weihan Evergreen Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sun Haitao	2501 Other
Hang Zhou Zhen Niu Xin Xi Ke Ji You Xian Gong Si	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Xin Yong Ka You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
51 Credit Card (china) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Rising Sun Limited	2501 Other
The Core Trust Company Limited	2301 Trustee
Tct (bvi) Limited	2501 Other
51 Stock Limited	2306 Nominee for another person
Tmf (cayman) Ltd.	2301 Trustee
Wukong Ltd.	2501 Other
51 Award Limited	2306 Nominee for another person

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