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C&D Property Management Group Co (HKSE:02156) Predictability Rank


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What is C&D Property Management Group Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

C&D Property Management Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

C&D Property Management Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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C&D Property Management Group Co (HKSE:02156) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » C&D Property Management Group Co Ltd (HKSE:02156) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:03316 HKSE:06666 HKSE:00410 HKSE:06626 HKSE:09666 HKSE:03319 HKSE:01755 HKSE:00873 HKSE:00158 HKSE:01516 CSGP CBRE XMAD:CLNX BEKE TSE:8830 HKSE:01972 SGX:9CI OSTO:AKEL D HKSE:01997 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.1699 Huandao East Road, Unit 703, 7th Floor, C&D International Building, Xiamen, CHN
Website
http://www.cndservice.com
C&D Property Management Group Co Ltd is an investment holding company with its subsidiaries engaged in providing property management services, community and synergy services, and services to non-property owners in the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Sha Men Jian Fa Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jian Fa Fang Di Chan Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yi Neng Guo Ji You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Yi Hong Guo Ji You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jian Fa Guo Ji Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2501 Other
Sha Men Jian Fa Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Richard 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Olp Capital Management Limited 2102 Investment manager
Rcwl Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Di Fan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cederberg Capital (cayman) 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cederberg Capital (cayman) Gp 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Krige Dawid 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bowie Krige Michelle Beatrice Wright 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

C&D Property Management Group Co (HKSE:02156) Headlines

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