MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech (HKSE:02160) Predictability Rank

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What is MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech (HKSE:02160) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech Corp (HKSE:02160) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

72X:Germany

Address

No. 1601 Zhangdong Road, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech Park, Pudong New District, Shanghai, CHN, 201203

Website

https://www.cardioflowmedtech.com

MicroPort CardioFlow Medtech Corp is a medical device company in China focusing on the research, development, and commercialization of transcatheter and surgical solutions for valvular heart diseases. The company's product portfolio consists of three products VitaFlow, VitaFlow Liberty, and Alwide Plus, and various TAVI products, TMV products, TTV products, surgical valve products, and procedural accessories. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from China.

Executives

China Renaissance Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hua Jie Tian Jin Yi Liao Tou Zi He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shang Hai Hua Hao Qi Ye Guan Li He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Tian Jin Hua Jie Qi Ye Guan Li Zi Xun He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Jin Hua Qing Qi Ye Guan Li Zi Xun You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Microport Scientific Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shanghai Microport Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
China International Capital Corporation Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cicc Capital Management Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cicc Kangrui I (ningbo) Equity Investment Limited Partners (limited Partnership)	2101 Beneficial owner
Cicc Kangzhi (ningbo) Equity Investment Management Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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