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KRP Development Holdings (HKSE:02421) Predictability Rank


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What is KRP Development Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KRP Development Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

KRP Development Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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KRP Development Holdings (HKSE:02421) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » KRP Development Holdings Ltd (HKSE:02421) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:03883 HKSE:06158 HKSE:01777 HKSE:00496 HKSE:00627 HKSE:00106 HKSE:02019 HKSE:03301 HKSE:01278 HKSE:00216 HKSE:00016 HKSE:01109 HKSE:00688 TSE:1925 SHSE:600048 HKSE:01113 SZSE:000002 BOM:532868 DFM:EMAAR SZSE:001979
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
611–619 Castle Peak Road, Block C, 9th Floor, Southeast Industrial Building, Tsuen Wan, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.krpd.com.hk
KRP Development Holdings Ltd is a boutique residential property developer, It is principally engaged in development and sales of residential properties in the fast-developing residential markets in Dongguan, Huizhou and Foshan. It has developed two product series for homebuyers, namely, Villas series, targeting middle income and move-up homebuyers, and Mansion, targeting first-time homebuyers and retirees.
Executives
Tmf (b.v.i.) Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Sense Enterprises Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Castfast Properties Development Co., Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Honford Investments Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
The Wedding City Co. Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ho Cheuk Fai 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ho Po Chu 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ho Cheuk Ming 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

KRP Development Holdings (HKSE:02421) Headlines

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