KE Holdings (HKSE:02423) Predictability Rank

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What is KE Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KE Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

KE Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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KE Holdings (HKSE:02423) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » KE Holdings Inc (HKSE:02423) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BEKE:USA KE8:Germany

Address

No. 2 Chuangye Road, Oriental Electronic Technology Building, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN, 100086

Website

https://investors.ke.com

KE Holdings, or Beike, is a large residential real estate sales and rental brokerage company in China. Founded in 2001, the company operates through self-owned Lianjia stores in Beijing and Shanghai and connected third-party agencies including franchise brand Deyou in other cities, with commissions charged on existing home and new home transactions. Leveraging an online-offline hybrid model, Beike also attract clients through its namesake online marketplace. The company tapped into home renovation services by acquiring Shengdu Home Decoration in 2022. As at the end of 2022, Beike's cofounders collectively control the company, while Tencent and its affiliates share 8% of voting power.

Executives

The Bank Of New York Mellon Corporation	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2502 Approved lending agent
Peng Yongdong	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Shan Yigang	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Cantrust (far East) Limited	2301 Trustee
Grain Bud Holding Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Propitious Global Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhu Yan	2501 Other
Ample Platinum Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Baihui Partners L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ark Trust (hong Kong) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Data Bliss Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sapient Rich Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Clover Rich Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Trident Trust Company (hk) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

KE Holdings (HKSE:02423) Headlines

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