Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) (HKSE:02500) Predictability Rank

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What is Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) (HKSE:02500) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Inc (HKSE:02500) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VMTHF:USA

Address

No. 88, Jiangling Road, Room 311, 3rd Floor, Block 2, Binjiang District, Hangzhou, CHN, 310051

Website

https://www.venusmedtech.com

Venus Medtech (Hangzhou) Inc is engaged in the development and commercialization of transcatheter solutions for structural heart diseases. It has two TAVR products on the market, namely VenusA-Valve, and VenusA-Plus. VenusA-Valve is its first-generation TAVR device, which is used to treat severe Aortic Stenosis (AS) using a transcatheter approach. VenusA-Plus is an upgraded product of VenusA-Valve. Geographically all of the revenue is derived from Mainland China.

Executives

Zeng Min Frank	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zi Zhenjun	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ming Zhi Investments (bvi) Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Ming Zhi Investments Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Venture Partners Iii, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Corporate Gp Iii, Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Qiming Gp Iii, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dcp Capital Partners, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dcp General Partner, Ltd	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dcp, Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Haifeng David	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Muheng Capital Partners (hong Kong) Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Red Giant Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wolhardt Julian Juul	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Horizon Binjiang Llc	2101 Beneficial owner

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