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Hua Medicine (HKSE:02552) Predictability Rank


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What is Hua Medicine Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hua Medicine Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hua Medicine Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hua Medicine Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Hua Medicine (HKSE:02552) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:06896 HKSE:02633 HKSE:02348 HKSE:01061 HKSE:02161 HKSE:08049 HKSE:03737 HKSE:00239 HKSE:00950 HKSE:00897 ZTS XTER:MRK NSE:SUNPHARMA TSE:4502 LSE:HLN XSWX:GALD XSWX:SDZ XTAE:TEVA NSE:DIVISLAB HKSE:03692
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Lane 36, Xuelin Road, Hua Medicine, Building 2, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, CHN, 201203
Website
https://www.huamedicine.com
Hua Medicine is an investment holding company. It is engaged in the development and commercialization of a first-in-class oral drug, Dorzagliatin or HMS5552, for the treatment of Type 2 diabetes. The group majorly operates in the PRC.
Executives
Chen Li 2101 Beneficial owner
Hlyy Limited 2306 Nominee for another person
Tct (bvi) Limited 2501 Other
The Core Trust Company Limited 2301 Trustee
Hong Jane Xingfang 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wuxi Pharmatech Investments (cayman) Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wuxi Pharmatech Investment Holdings (cayman) Inc. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wuxi Pharmatech Fund I General Partner L.p. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wuxi Pharmatech Healthcare Fund I L.p. 2101 Beneficial owner
Wuxi Apptec Co., Ltd. 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wuxi Apptec International Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Nelsen Robert Taylor 2101 Beneficial owner
Venrock Management V, Llc 2102 Investment manager
Harvest Yuanxiang (cayman) Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Arch Venture Fund Vii, L.p. 2101 Beneficial owner

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