Aluminum of China (HKSE:02600) Predictability Rank

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What is Aluminum of China Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aluminum of China Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aluminum of China Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Aluminum Corp of China Ltd (HKSE:02600) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

ALMMF:USA AOC:Germany 601600:China AOC:Austria

Address

No. 62 North Xizhimen Street, Haidian District, Beijing, CHN, 100082

Website

https://www.chalco.com.cn

Aluminum Corp of China Ltd is an aluminum producer. Its main business includes exploration and mining of resources such as bauxite and coal, production, sales, technology research and development of alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum alloys, and carbon products, international trade, logistics industry, thermal and new energy power generation, etc. The company's reportable operating segments are; The alumina segment, The primary aluminum segment, Energy, Trading, and the Corporate segment. The majority of its revenue is generated from the primary aluminum segment which consists of procuring alumina and other raw materials, supplemental materials and electricity power, and smelting alumina to produce primary aluminum. Geographically, its key revenue is derived from Mainland China.

Executives

Blackrock, Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Aluminum Corporation Of China	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Citigroup Inc.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yi Fang Da Ji Jin Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2102 Investment manager
Alliancebernstein L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.	2502 Approved lending agent
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ubs Group Ag	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Atlas Ocm Holdings Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Karsh Bruce Allen	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Marks Howard Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings, L.p.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oaktree Capital Management Gp Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Oaktree Capital Management, L.p.	2102 Investment manager

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