CStone Pharmaceuticals (HKSE:02616) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is CStone Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CStone Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CStone Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CStone Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CStone Pharmaceuticals (HKSE:02616) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » CStone Pharmaceuticals (HKSE:02616) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CSPHF:USA PH4:Germany

Address

218 Xinghu Street, C1 Building, North Block, Suzhou Industrial Park, Shanghai, CHN, 215123

Website

https://www.cstonepharma.com

CStone Pharmaceuticals is engaged in the development and commercialization of innovative tumor immunotherapy and molecular-targeted drugs. It has been operating in one reportable segment, the research and development of complex biopharmaceutical products.

Executives

Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Zheng Ze Yuan Shi Chuang Ye Tou Zi Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2101 Beneficial owner
Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Zheng Ze Ji Ming Gu Quan Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Zheng Ze Jian Kang Chuang Ye Tou Zi Guan Li Zhong Xin You Xian He Huo	2501 Other
Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Yuan He Yuan Dian Chuang Ye Tou Zi Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Guan Wei Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Su Zhou Gong Ye Yuan Qu Jing Ji Fa Zhan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Su Zhou Yuan He Kong Gu Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Fei Jianjiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wuxi Healthcare Ventures Ii, L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner
Wuxi Healthcare Management, Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Morgan Stanley	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Gic Private Limited	2102 Investment manager
Jiang Frank Ningjun	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Graceful Beauty Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Boyu Capital Holdings Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

CStone Pharmaceuticals (HKSE:02616) Headlines

No Headlines