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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) (HKSE:02689) Predictability Rank


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What is Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd (HKSE:02689) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02314 HKSE:02002 HKSE:02260 HKSE:01412 HKSE:00731 HKSE:03363 HKSE:08481 HKSE:00794 OHEL:UPM BSP:SUZB3 BUE:CELU OHEL:STERV LSE:MNDI OSTO:HOLM A SZSE:002078 BSP:KLBN3 XSGO:CMPC SLVM TSE:3861 BOM:500040
Traded in Other Exchanges
NDGPY:USA NDGPF:USA N3Y:Germany
Address
No.12, Xincheng Road, Songshan Lake High-Tech Industrial Development Zone, Guangdong Province, Dongguan, CHN
Website
http://www.ndpaper.com
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Ltd operates as a paper products manufacturer. The company predominantly produces liner boards, corrugating medium, and coated duplex boards. In addition to packaging paperboard, the group is also engaged in the production of printing and writing paper in Dongguan and Taicang, as well as the development of packaging paperboard and specialty paper production in Leshan, Sichuan Province. A substantial part of the company's revenues are generated from the sale of packaging paper and the rest from sales of printing and writing paper, high-value specialty paper products, and Pulp.
Executives
Zedra Jersey Trust Corporation Limited Formerly Bnp Paribas Jersey Trust Corporation Limited 2301 Trustee
Cheung Yan 2101 Beneficial owner
Liu Ming Chung 2101 Beneficial owner
Lau Chun Shun 2101 Beneficial owner
Bnp Paribas Jersey Trust Corporation Limited 2301 Trustee
Yc 2013 Company Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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