China Glass Holdings (HKSE:03300) Predictability Rank

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What is China Glass Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Glass Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Glass Holdings (HKSE:03300) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » China Glass Holdings Ltd (HKSE:03300) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

168-200 Connaught Road, Unit 2608, 26th Floor, West Tower, Shun Tak Centre, Central, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.chinaglassholdings.com

China Glass Holdings Ltd is engaged in the production, marketing, and distribution of float glass, reflective glass, and other glass products. It has five business segments, Clear glass products; Painted glass products; Coated glass products; Energy saving and new energy glass products, such as ultra clear glass, low emission coated glass and photovoltaic battery module products; and Designing and installation services of pharmaceutical glass production lines. Geographically, the company has operations in Mainland China, Hong Kong, the Middle East, Nigeria, Italy, Kazakhstan and other countries. It generates a majority of its revenues from the Clear glass products segment.

Executives

Tung Ching Sai	2202 Interest of your spouse
Sze Tan Hung	2101 Beneficial owner
Cao Zhijiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Easylead Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Jinduo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Zuxiang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
First Fortune Enterprises Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Right Lane Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lian Xiang Hong Yi Guo Ji You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lian Xiang Kong Gu Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Beng Bu Hua Jin Kong Gu Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhao John Huan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
United Strength Upward Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Glory Management Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
New Glory Fund L.p.	2101 Beneficial owner

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