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JNBY Design (HKSE:03306) Predictability Rank


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What is JNBY Design Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JNBY Design Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

JNBY Design Predictability Rank Related Terms

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JNBY Design (HKSE:03306) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » JNBY Design Ltd (HKSE:03306) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01234 HKSE:02232 HKSE:02199 HKSE:02368 HKSE:03818 HKSE:02399 HKSE:00533 HKSE:01982 HKSE:08107 HKSE:00933 OSTO:HM B MIL:MONC RL VFC WAR:LPP LEVI BOM:532827 TSX:GIL SHSE:600398 PVH
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No. 398 Tianmushan Road, Building 2-6, OELi, Xihu District, Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, CHN
Website
https://www.jiangnanbuyigroup.com.cn
JNBY Design Ltd is a designer brand fashion house based in China. The company designs, promote, and sells contemporary apparel, footwear, and accessories for women, men, children, and teenagers as well as household products. Its brand portfolio comprises of JNBY, CROQUIS, jnby by JNBY, less, POMME DE TERRE, and JNBYHOME. The company operates in three segments: Mature Brand, Younger brands, and Emerging brands. Geographically, it generates the majority of the revenue from Mainland China and also from Mature Brand segment.
Executives
Li Lin 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Ninth Investment Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Cititrust Private Trust (cayman) Limited 2301 Trustee
Li Family Capital Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wu Jian 2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl
Tct (bvi) Limited 2501 Other
The Core Trust Company Limited 2301 Trustee
Ninth Capital Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Wu Family Capital Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Energetic Design Limited 2306 Nominee for another person

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