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Top Spring International Holdings (HKSE:03688) Predictability Rank


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What is Top Spring International Holdings Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Top Spring International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Top Spring International Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Top Spring International Holdings Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Top Spring International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:03688) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00337 HKSE:01278 HKSE:00160 HKSE:00627 HKSE:00846 HKSE:00672 HKSE:01243 HKSE:01966 HKSE:01233 HKSE:01098 DFM:EMAAR HKSE:00016 PHS:HVN HKSE:01109 TSE:1925 ADX:ALDAR BOM:532868 HKSE:00688 HKSE:01113 DFM:EMAARDEV
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6-8 Harbour Road, Rooms 04-08, 26th Floor, Shui On Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.topspring.com
Top Spring International Holdings Ltd is an investment holding engaged in property development, property investment, property management and related services, and education-related services in the People's Republic of China. It generates the majority of its revenue from the Property development segment which develops and sells residential and commercial properties. Geographically the company has a presence in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, and Australia, with key revenue coming from Chinese Mainland.
Executives
Hsbc International Trustee Limited 2301 Trustee
Ong Sek Hian (wang Shixian) 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ong Jenn (wang Zhen) 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chance Again Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Cheung Yuet (b.v.i.) Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Liu Choi Lin 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wong Chun Hong 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Metro Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Metro Holdings Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Cai Yun Guo Ji Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Yun Nan Sheng Cheng Shi Jian She Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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