Global Sweeteners Holdings (HKSE:03889) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Sweeteners Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Sweeteners Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Sweeteners Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Global Sweeteners Holdings Ltd (HKSE:03889) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

18 Hung Luen Road, Suite 1002, 10th Floor, Tower A, Cheung Kei Center, Hung Hom, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.global-sweeteners.com

Global Sweeteners Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company. The company through its subsidiaries is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of corn refined products and corn-based sweetener products. Its segments include the Corn refined products segment and Corn sweeteners segment. The Corn refined products segment which comprises the manufacture and sale of corn starch, gluten meal, corn oil, and other corn refined products. The Corn sweeteners segment which comprises the manufacture and sale of glucose syrup, maltose syrup, high fructose corn syrup, crystallized glucose, and maltodextrin.

Executives

Wang Tieguang	2101 Beneficial owner
Global Bio-chem Technology Group Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Global Corn Bio-chem Technology Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Modern Agricultural Industry Investment Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Modern Agricultural Industry Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Kong Zhanpeng	2101 Beneficial owner
Ji Lin Sheng Ren Min Zheng Fu Guo You Zi Chan Jian Du Guan Li Wei Yuan Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Lin Sheng Xian Dai Nong Ye Chan Ye Ji Jin You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Lin Sheng Xian Dai Nong Ye Chan Ye Tou Zi Ji Jin You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hong Kong Huasheng Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Li Tingsheng	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Lin Sheng Hua Sheng Shang Mao You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Lin Sheng Nong Ye Fa Zhan Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si Qian Cheng Ji Lin Sheng Nong Ye Tou Zi Ji Tuan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ji Lin Sheng Nong Ye Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hartington Profits Limited	2101 Beneficial owner

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