GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Golden Power Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:03919) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Golden Power Group Holdings (HKSE:03919) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2015. Start your Free Trial

What is Golden Power Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Golden Power Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Golden Power Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Golden Power Group Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Golden Power Group Holdings Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Golden Power Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:03919) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01750 HKSE:08623 HKSE:08136 HKSE:01166 HKSE:00724 HKSE:00725 SZSE:300750 XSWX:ABBN BKK:DELTA TSE:6503 XPAR:LR SZSE:300124 SZSE:300274 XKRX:247540 HUBB VRT SZSE:300014 SHSE:603195 MIL:PRY SHSE:600089
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
57 Ting Kok Road, Flat C, 20th Floor, Block 1, Tai Ping Industrial Centre, Tai Po, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.goldenpower.com
Golden Power Group Holdings Ltd is an investment holding company, which engages in the manufacture and sale of batteries for electronic devices. It operates through the following segments: Disposable Batteries, Rechargeable Batteries, and Other Battery-Related Products. The Disposable Batteries segment contains cylindrical batteries and micro-button cells. The Rechargeable Batteries and Other Battery-Related Products segment includes battery charges, battery power packs, and electric fans. The majority of the firm's revenue is derived from the sale of disposable batteries. Its geographical segments are China, Hong Kong, Asia (except the PRC and Hong Kong), Europe, Eastern Europe, North America, South America, Australia, Africa, and the Middle East.
Executives
Golden Villa Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Triumph Treasure Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Chu King Tien 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mo Yuk Ling 2202 Interest of your spouse
Chu Shuk Ching 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Golden Power Group Holdings Headlines

No Headlines