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Midea Real Estate Holding (HKSE:03990) Predictability Rank


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What is Midea Real Estate Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Midea Real Estate Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Midea Real Estate Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Midea Real Estate Holding (HKSE:03990) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd (HKSE:03990) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00071 HKSE:01686 HKSE:01516 HKSE:02869 HKSE:03319 HKSE:09666 HKSE:02156 HKSE:03316 HKSE:06666 HKSE:00410 CSGP CBRE XMAD:CLNX BEKE TSE:8830 HKSE:01972 OSTO:AKEL D SGX:9CI HKSE:01997 MIL:INW
Traded in Other Exchanges
MR9:Germany
Address
No.1 Chengde Road, 34th Floor, Tower 4, Midea Real Estate Plaza, Shunde District, Guangdong Province, Foshan, CHN, 528311
Website
https://www.mideadc.com
Midea Real Estate Holding Ltd is a real estate development company that offers real estate services. It operates through three principal business segments: Property development and sales; Property management services; and Investment and operation of commercial properties. Property development and sales generates most of the revenue.
Executives
He Jianfeng 2202 Interest of your spouse
He Xiangjian 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Midea Development Holding (bvi) Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Lu Deyan 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ya Ge Er Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

Midea Real Estate Holding (HKSE:03990) Headlines

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