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Tian Yuan Group Holdings (HKSE:06119) Predictability Rank


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What is Tian Yuan Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tian Yuan Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Tian Yuan Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tian Yuan Group Holdings Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Tian Yuan Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06119) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01145 HKSE:00351 HKSE:01549 HKSE:03683 HKSE:02682 HKSE:00137 HKSE:08020 HKSE:00560 HKSE:01719 BOM:532921 HKSE:01919 XTER:HLAG OCSE:MAERSK B SHSE:600018 TSE:9101 TPE:2603 XKRX:011200 TSE:9104 PHS:ICT SHSE:601018
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Dianhai Street, 12th Floor, Academic Exchange Center Intersection of Panzhou Avenue and Yingbin Avenue, Dianbai District, Guangdong Province, Maoming, CHN
Website
https://www.tianyuangroupholdings.com
Tian Yuan Group Holdings Ltd is engaged in the provision of bulk and general cargo uploading and unloading services supply and sales of oil products and related ancillary value-added port services in The People's Republic of China. Cargo uploading and unloading services handle bulk cargo such as coal, quartz sand, oil products, grain, asphalt, and kaolinite, as well as a small portion of break bulk cargo and neo-bulk cargo. Related ancillary value-added port services consist of storage services at oil tanks and grain barns as well as leasing of shovel trucks. It operates in two segments: Cargo handling and ancillary services and Sales of oil products. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Cargo handling and ancillary service segment.
Executives
Greenpro Trust Limited 2301 Trustee
Sino Ford Enterprises Limited
Yang Jinming
Zhang Dan
Huang Yongcheng 2101 Beneficial owner

Tian Yuan Group Holdings Headlines

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