IWS Group Holdings (HKSE:06663) Predictability Rank

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What is IWS Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IWS Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IWS Group Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IWS Group Holdings Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » IWS Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:06663) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 483A Castle Peak Road, 29/F, Excel Centre, Cheung Sha Wan, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.iws.com.hk

IWS Group Holdings Ltd is engaged in the provision of security services and facility management services in Hong Kong. It operates through two segments. The Security Services segment that derives the majority of revenue provides security service personnel mainly for general manned guarding, manpower support to the event and crisis security at railway stations and facilities, sea, land and railway immigration control points, public amenities, private commercial, residential and other properties. The Facility Management Services segment engages in the provision of property management services, car park management services, cleaning services, hotel management services, rental of car parks, and sub-leasing of car parks.

Executives

Iws Group Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Pak Ching	2202 Interest of your spouse
Choi Lai Form	2202 Interest of your spouse
Chow Yick Tung	2202 Interest of your spouse
Ho Yin Nei	2202 Interest of your spouse
Ma Ah Muk	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Ma Kiu Man Vince	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ma Kiu Mo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ma Kiu Sang	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Jian Qiao Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wen Hua Zi Chan Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sen Ye Zi Chan Kong Gu You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

IWS Group Holdings Headlines

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