Vision International Holdings (HKSE:08107) Predictability Rank

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What is Vision International Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vision International Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Vision International Holdings (HKSE:08107) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Vision International Holdings Ltd (HKSE:08107) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1002-1008 Tai Nan West Street, 3rd Floor, China United Plaza, Cheung Sha Wan, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.vision-holdings.com.hk

Vision International Holdings Ltd is engaged in the sales of apparel products with the provision of SCM services to customers and the provision of agency services for construction and related materials. The company is an apparel supply chain management services provider in Hong Kong with its services range across market trend analysis, product design, and development, sourcing of suppliers, production management, logistics services, and quality control. It generates revenue mainly from the sales of apparel products with the provision of SCM services to customers, delivering one-stop solutions to customers in Europe and Asia; and the agency fees from the sales of construction and related materials to sourcing agents in South East Asia.

Executives

Chan Ting	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Beaming Elite Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Jpmorgan Chase & Co.	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Arena Investors, Lp	2102 Investment manager
Arena Special Opportunities Partners Ii, Lp	2101 Beneficial owner
Lau Chi Wing James	2101 Beneficial owner
Metro Vanguard Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Chan Sau Fung	2202 Interest of your spouse
Ko Sin Yun	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Quick Target Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Arena Investors Group Holdings, Llc	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Enkai Investments Pte. Ltd.	2101 Beneficial owner
Ng Kim Ming	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Vision International Holdings (HKSE:08107) Headlines

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