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Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co (HKSE:08227) Predictability Rank


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What is Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Ltd (HKSE:08227) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02000 HKSE:01085 HKSE:01300 HKSE:01708 HKSE:01202 HKSE:01473 HKSE:01617 HKSE:01613 HKSE:08487 HKSE:00482 CSCO MSI SHSE:601138 OSTO:ERIC B OHEL:NOKIA HPE SZSE:000063 ZBRA UI SZSE:300502
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.25 Shuoshi Road, Hi-tech Industrial Development Zone, Shaanxi Province, Xi’an, CHN
Website
http://www.xaht.com
Xi'an Haitian Antenna Technologies Co Ltd is mainly engaged in the manufacturing of communication equipment. It is in the development, production and sales of communication antenna products. Its main products are mobile base station lens antenna, Wi-Fi router, Wi-Fi router lens antennas and agricultural and sideline products. The Group's reportable segments are as follows: sales of antenna products and provision of related services; sales of underwater monitoring products and related products; sales of aircraft products; sales of agricultural products. Key revenue is generated from sales of antenna products and provision of related services segment.
Executives
Hongkong Jinsheng Enterprise Co.,limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Bing 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chen Wei 2101 Beneficial owner
Huang Lihou 2101 Beneficial owner
Oceanic Bliss Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner

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