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Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials (HKSE:08490) Predictability Rank


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What is Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials (HKSE:08490) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Ltd (HKSE:08490) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:08257 HKSE:02336 XAMS:ASML AMAT LRCX KLAC TSE:8035 SHSE:601012 XAMS:ASM TSE:6146 TSE:6857 SZSE:002371 TSE:6920 SHSE:688012 ENTG TER SZSE:000100 SZSE:002129 XAMS:BESI SZSE:300316
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Unit 208, 2nd Floor, Lakeside 1, Phase Two, Hong Kong Science Park, Pak Shek Kok, New Territories, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.nichetech.com.hk
Niche-Tech Semiconductor Materials Ltd is a semiconductor packaging materials manufacturer. Its products are divided into Bonding Wires, Encapsulants, and Others. Bonding wires include developing, manufacturing, and supply of fine and ultra-fine Bonding Wires such as gold, gold alloy, silver alloy, aluminum, silicone aluminum, copper, copper alloy, and palladium-coated copper. Other products mainly include solder wire, solder bar, solder paste, and bonding tools for PCB application, and Encapsulant includes high-purity liquid glob-top epoxy for COB applications and others. The company generates a majority of its revenue from Bonding wires, and geographically from the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Chows Investment Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Niche-tech Investment Holdings Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Cheng Pak Ching 2202 Interest of your spouse
Ma Ah Muk 2101 Beneficial owner
Chow Chun Kay Stephen 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Fung Wai Lan Rita 2202 Interest of your spouse
Chow Bok Hin Felix 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Chow Kuo Li Jen 2202 Interest of your spouse

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