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Ximei Resources Holding (HKSE:09936) Predictability Rank


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What is Ximei Resources Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ximei Resources Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Ximei Resources Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Ximei Resources Holding (HKSE:09936) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Ximei Resources Holding Ltd (HKSE:09936) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:01440 HKSE:02439 HKSE:03318 HKSE:08053 HKSE:02283 HKSE:01986 HKSE:00408 HKSE:00301 HKSE:00701 HKSE:00640 LIN XPAR:AI APD SHW ECL SHSE:600309 XSWX:SIKA BOM:500820 DD XSWX:GIVN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Hongqiao Village, Qiaotou Town, Guangdong Province, Yingde, CHN
Website
http://www.zhiyuanm.com
Ximei Resources Holding Ltd produces tantalum- and niobium-based metallurgical products in China. Tantalum- and niobium-based metallurgical products are essential in the downstream manufacture of many products used in high-tech industries, such as special alloy, chemical, electronic ceramics, aeronautics, aerospace, high-end electronics, defence and hard alloy. Its principal products are tantalum pentoxide and niobium pentoxide. It also produces and sells potassium heptafluorotantalate. The company sells processed products such as tantalum bars, tantalum carbide, niobium bars and niobium powder, which are produced by engaging third-party metallurgy companies to process the pentoxide products and potassium heptafluorotantalate it produces or purchased from third-party metallurgy companies.
Executives
Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. 2101 Beneficial owner
Jiawei Resources Holding Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Ruan Xiaomei 2202 Interest of your spouse
Wu Lijue 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Ximei Resources Holding (HKSE:09936) Headlines

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