Hecla Mining Co (Hecla Mining Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Hecla Mining Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hecla Mining Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hecla Mining Co (Hecla Mining Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » Hecla Mining Co (NYSE:HL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HLpB.PFD:USA 1HL:Italy HCL:Germany HL:Argentina

Address

6500 North Mineral Drive, Suite 200, Coeur d'Alene, ID, USA, 83815-9408

Website

https://www.hecla.com

Hecla Mining Co produces and explores silver, gold, lead, and zinc. The operating business segments are Greens Creek, Lucky Friday, Keno Hill, Casa Berardi, and Nevada Operations. It generates maximum revenue from the Greens Creek segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from Canada.

Executives

George R Johnson	director	6500 N MINERAL DR, SUITE 200, COEUR D ALENE ID 83815
Kurt Allen	officer: Vice President - Exploration	6500 N. MINERAL DR., SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815
Michael L. Clary	officer: Sr. VP & Chief Admin. Officer	6500 N. MINERAL DR., SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815
David C Sienko	officer: Vice President - Gen. Counsel	6500 N. MINERAL DRIVE, SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815
Stephen F Ralbovsky	director	6500 N MINERAL DR, SUITE 200, COEUR D ALENE ID 83815
Charles B Stanley	director	6500 NORTH MINERAL DRIVE, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815-9408
Theodore Crumley	director	2390 N. TOWERVIEW LANE, BOISE ID 83702
Terry V Rogers	director	6500 N. MINERAL DR., SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815
Nethercutt George R Jr	director	6500 N. MINERAL DRIVE, SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815-9408
Russell Douglas Lawlar	officer: Sr. VP, CFO and Treasurer	6500 N. MINERAL DR., SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815
Alice Wong	director	6500 N. MINERAL DR, SUITE 200, COEUR D ALENE ID 83815
Baker Phillips S Jr	director, officer: President, CEO & CFO	6500 NORTH MINERAL DRIVE, SUITE 200, COEUR D 'ALENE ID 83815
Robert Denis Brown	officer: Vice President - Corp. Develp.	6500 N MINERAL DR, SUITE 200, COEUR D ALENE ID 83815
Lauren M Roberts	officer: Sr. Vice President & COO	6500 N MINERAL DR, SUITE 200, COEUR D ALENE ID 83815
Catherine J Boggs	director	6500 N MINERAL DR., SUITE 200, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815